Bitcoin's Path to a New All-Time High, in Charts — WSJ

By Alexander Osipovich

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high on Thursday, alongside the Nasdaq Composite and tech giant Nvidia.

The oldest and largest cryptocurrency traded as high as $113,853.97, a day after breaking its previous record set in May, according to CoinDesk data.

After President Trump's election victory in November, bitcoin soared and surpassed $100,000 for the first time. But its progress stalled in the following months, while tariff-fueled volatility shook markets and investors waited for Washington to deliver pro-crypto policies.

Here are some factors behind bitcoin's rise — and risks that could derail it going forward.

Trump gave bitcoin a bump...

Previous bitcoin rallies have been triggered by signs that the once-fringe world of crypto is going mainstream, such as the listing of the first bitcoin futures contracts in 2017, or Coinbase Global's stock-market debut in 2021.

This time, crypto investors are savoring something they have never had before: a friend in the White House. Trump has ordered the creation of a strategic reserve for the U.S. government's bitcoin holdings and vowed to sign legislation to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to the dollar. The Senate passed such a bill last month.

...but bitcoin is still a risky asset.

Bitcoin enthusiasts call it "digital gold" and claim that it will secure your wealth against the risks of hyperinflation or financial collapse. But so far this year, bitcoin has generally tracked stocks: When Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs tanked the S&P 500 in April, bitcoin tumbled, too. Then it rebounded, along with stocks, after Trump walked back his most extreme tariff plans.

"If you're bullish crypto, good — but you better hope the stock market goes up, because there is a very high and increasing correlation, particularly when the stock market goes down," said Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

A new factor: corporate buying

Previous bull markets in bitcoin tended to be driven by frenzied buying by small investors. Now, there is a new buyer in town: a growing number of corporations stockpiling bitcoin.

The best-known such company is MicroStrategy, the software maker that began accumulating bitcoin in 2020 and has since turned its stock into a leveraged bet on bitcoin's growth. GameStop, Tesla, Trump Media & Technology Group and the recently launched Twenty One Capital, a MicroStrategy copycat, are among the dozens of other companies to pursue what has been dubbed the "bitcoin treasury strategy."

It remains to be seen how this corporate bitcoin binge plays out. Now, if bitcoin crashes — as it has done repeatedly in the past — it could drag down a chunk of the stock market, too. Some analysts worry that if such companies run into trouble, they could be forced to unload bitcoin, potentially setting off a downward price spiral.

And don't forget the ETFs

In January 2024, regulators reluctantly approved the listing of exchange-traded funds that hold bitcoin — known as spot bitcoin ETFs — after a yearslong push by the crypto industry. Issued by the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity Investments, these funds make it easy for investors to hold bitcoin along with stocks and bonds in their portfolios.

The data show heavy inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs after Trump's election victory; in late April and May, when bitcoin was climbing its way back to a record; and after the Senate passed the stablecoin bill in June. In all, there is roughly $146 billion worth of bitcoin held in such ETFs, according to The Block Research.

Write to Alexander Osipovich at alexo@wsj.com