Tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz: Iranian drone approaches US aircraft carrier and is shot down, US-flagged tanker harassed

U.S. President Trump reiterated that despite a recent small-scale conflict in the Arabian Sea escalating tensions between the two countries and disturbing the oil market, the U.S. and Iran are still maintaining diplomatic negotiations.

"We are negotiating with them right now," Trump said to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, "They want to take action." He added, "They had a chance to do something before, but they didn't succeed, so we implemented the 'Midnight Hammer' operation." He was referring to last June's U.S. military strike against Iran.

Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. Central Command stated in a release that an American F-35C fighter jet shot down a drone in self-defense while the unmanned aircraft was "aggressively approaching" the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" with "unclear intentions." Central Command reported that no American personnel were injured and no U.S. equipment was damaged.

This news caused oil prices to spike to intraday highs as investors weighed the risks of a broader escalation in the Middle East. The region supplies about one-third of the world's crude oil. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later confirmed that talks involving Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff between the U.S. and Iran are still scheduled for Friday, leading oil prices to give back some of their gains.

"As far as the president is concerned, he has always maintained the principle of prioritizing diplomacy, but for diplomacy to work, both sides need to make an effort," Leavitt said on Fox News. She added that the meeting later this week "is still on schedule, but the president certainly always has multiple options available—one of which includes the use of military force."

Before the drone incident, Trump had been applying pressure on Iran for weeks. The U.S. president had threatened airstrikes due to Tehran's violent treatment of Iranian protesters and repeatedly mentioned that the U.S. Navy "fleet" was approaching the Middle East as a means to pressure Iran to curb its nuclear program.

On Monday, Trump hinted at the possibility of reaching a new nuclear agreement while warning that "bad things will happen" if negotiations do not progress.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Islamic Republic is ready for diplomatic engagement but urged the U.S. to refrain from "threatening, intimidating, or pressuring" actions.

Just hours before the drone was shot down, a tanker involved in a U.S. military fuel procurement project was approached by small armed vessels near the Iranian coast in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting new risks to maritime traffic in the region.

"These actions could push President Trump away from the diplomatic path and back toward military options," Becca Wasser, head of defense research at Bloomberg Economics, analyzed, "This is a dangerous game, especially with the U.S. having amassed significant firepower in the Middle East."

This incident also occurred after U.S. Central Command issued a warning last week. The command had advised Iran not to fly over U.S. vessels or target U.S. military assets. In a statement last Friday evening, the command acknowledged Iran's right to conduct live-fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz but urged the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to do so "safely, professionally, and without unnecessarily risking the freedom of navigation for international maritime traffic."

Central Command reported that in a separate incident hours after the drone was shot down, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard "harassed" a U.S. merchant vessel operating in international waters. According to Central Command, two Revolutionary Guard speedboats and a drone "rapidly approached" the U.S. vessel, "threatening to board and seize the tanker," after which a U.S. missile destroyer escorted the American vessel safely away from the area.

Despite the White House continuing to send signals of willingness to engage in dialogue while keeping military options against Iran on the table, analysts noted that the large military assets deployed to the region may compel the U.S. to take action sooner rather than later.

"Trump's deployment of significant military equipment to the region is purposeful," said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. "I think the time these assets are deployed in the region is limited—not only because of the high costs but also because the U.S. needs to be prepared for other contingencies."

Katulis suggested the possibility of a "diplomatic fig leaf" that could buy Trump time for diplomatic negotiations and avoid high-risk actions. However, with several days until the talks, the risks of miscalculation and military conflict remain.

"We have seen similar situations before— the Iranian Islamic Republic has previously used fast attack boats and drones to harass and approach U.S. vessels," noted Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. "The difference is that the stakes have never been this high."