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Wall Street institutions anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision: consensus to hold steady, assessing policy impact

Jan 28, 2026 16:52:27

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Macquarie: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with a decline in unemployment guiding the Federal Reserve to stay put.

Goldman Sachs: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with the Federal Reserve making only minor adjustments to its monetary policy stance.

Nomura Securities: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The policy guidance will continue to indicate that the threshold for future rate cuts will be higher.

Oxford Economics: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Economic growth is expected to improve this year, and the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy until June.

Citibank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The truly important signal will come from Powell's tone, especially regarding the extent to which he opens the door for future rate cuts.

Barclays: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The combination of employment and inflation data does not support an immediate continuation of rate cuts; the FOMC needs time to assess the impact of recent rate cuts.

Rabobank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The majority of committee members believe that the three insurance rate cuts implemented at the end of last year have been sufficient.

JPMorgan Chase: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The labor market has not deteriorated rapidly, and the recent stabilization of the unemployment rate should ultimately lead the FOMC to reach a consensus to stay put.

Morgan Stanley: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The statement is expected to raise the economic growth outlook from "moderate" to "robust" and remove the wording regarding "increased downside risks to employment."

KBC: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The downside risks in the labor market have eased, and the expected growth in real GDP has collectively reduced the necessity for a rate cut at the January meeting.

Danske Bank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Unless there is a significant macro surprise, a pause in rate cuts this month has become a foregone conclusion.

DBS Bank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Employment growth may slow, but the unemployment rate remains low, and real wages are also increasing.

Bank of Montreal: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The policy statement will convey a hawkish signal. There is no urgency for the Federal Reserve to take any policy action.

Russell Investments: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Given recent data showing that the U.S. economy continues to grow above expectations and the labor market remains stable, staying put in January has become a foregone conclusion.

Dutch International: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. After three cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, strong growth, low unemployment, near-historic highs in U.S. stocks, and still elevated inflation all provide ample reason to pause.

Nuveen: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Considering the implementation of policies in the coming quarters, such as new tax cuts and the fiscal impacts of previous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pausing rate cuts is very reasonable.

First American Financial: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The voting results for the rate cut in December were "relatively close," with six Federal Reserve officials leaning towards keeping rates unchanged, indicating that "the threshold for further easing is higher."

ANZ Bank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Although inflation pressures are easing and the labor market is on a cooling track, the data since the last meeting has not deteriorated to the extent that would warrant further easing in January.

Reuters Survey: All 100 economists surveyed expect interest rates to remain unchanged. Of the 100, 55 expect rate cuts to resume in June or later.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this are at the user's own risk.

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