Coinbase: The crypto market in 2026 will be dominated by perpetual contracts, prediction markets, and stablecoin payments

Coinbase Institutional recently pointed out in its research outlook that the core of the crypto market in 2026 will no longer be driven by narratives, but rather depend on whether key market structures can continue to expand under stricter conditions. The report, authored by Coinbase's Global Research Director David Duong and researcher Colin Basco, argues that the traditional cycle model centered around retail speculation, token issuance, and single-protocol catalysts is gradually failing. The report identifies perpetual contracts as a key pillar of price discovery, noting that derivatives trading volume has dominated in most major exchanges. Although the derivatives market experienced a deleveraging adjustment at the end of 2025, Coinbase views this as a structural reset rather than a decline in demand, believing that stricter margin requirements and risk control measures have enhanced the market's ability to absorb shocks.

Additionally, Coinbase believes that prediction markets are transitioning from experimental products to more sustainable financial infrastructure, with increased transaction volumes and liquidity attracting more non-crypto native participants. Stablecoins and payments are seen as the sectors with the most practical use value, with their applications in settlement, cross-border transfers, and liquidity management continuing to grow, gradually integrating with automated trading and AI applications. Coinbase states that 2026 will be a crucial year to test whether these core markets can continue to develop under high-intensity regulation and risk constraints.