Wintermute: The four-year cycle logic has failed, and the real driving force of the market lies in liquidity

Wintermute stated in its latest market report that despite the ongoing global liquidity expansion, major central banks cutting interest rates in succession, and the end of quantitative tightening, the stock market remains at high levels. However, incremental funds have not flowed into the crypto market but have instead moved more towards stocks, AI, and prediction markets, with only stablecoin supply continuing to grow.

The report pointed out that the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current market landscape, and the core driving force behind price movements today is macro liquidity. Wintermute believes that the current market structure remains robust, leverage risks have been fully cleared, and volatility is relatively controllable. However, the true recovery of the crypto market still relies on the restart of fund inflows from ETFs and DAT (tokenized asset trading).