QCP: The market is focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, while Bitcoin's year-end liquidity hits bottom with severe fluctuations

QCP released its daily market observation stating that BTC experienced significant fluctuations on Sunday in the range of $88,000 to $92,000, while ETH quickly surged from $2,910 to $3,150. As liquidity continues to decline towards the end of the year, the market has become particularly sensitive to small capital flows. However, despite the strong volatility, the scale of liquidations remains relatively small, indicating that market participation and positions have continued to decrease this quarter. The open interest of perpetual contracts for the two major assets has dropped by 40-50% from the October highs, and retail sentiment has returned to bear market levels.

Meanwhile, the supply side is tightening significantly. In the past two weeks, approximately 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and ETF and corporate holdings have for the first time exceeded exchange balances; ETH reserves on trading platforms have also fallen to nearly a decade low, indicating that while retail investors are exiting, long-term capital is quietly accumulating. Market focus is shifting to Wednesday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut, the guidance on the balance sheet will determine the year-end direction of risk assets. Currently, BTC is still fluctuating in the range of $84,000 to $100,000, while market depth continues to deteriorate. With the year-end holidays approaching, any breakout on either side could trigger the next major trend.